20240229
- In today’s uncertain world, it is generally believed that predicting the future for many things is not possible.
- However, I came up with a scenario of “How VR might evolve in the next 5-10 years” and decided to write it down.
Assumptions:
- In the vision OS that boasts Spatial Computing, it is possible to run multiple applications simultaneously.
- This can be done while running.
- It differs from gaming consoles like Quest.
- The operating system is designed in such a way.
Traditional Scenario (unlikely to happen):
- Places like “company offices,” “meeting rooms,” “cafes” that were traditionally in the physical world are expected to move to virtual spaces like VRChat or Cluster.
- Moving abruptly from 0 to 100 seems to have a very high barrier.
- It may not even be necessary to go all the way to 100.
Proposed Scenario (expected to happen):
- Around Vision Pro 2-3 (2025-27), it is expected that the quality of being able to work on a PC while wearing the device will be achieved.
- This will lead to interacting with others while working on a PC.
- It will not be exactly like sharing the same world, like in a “metaverse,” but rather sharing a bit of time and space.
- An image akin to Discord’s work calls where “small icons float and only voices are heard.”
- Starting from this minimal sharing of time and space, it will gradually evolve into richer experiences based on needs.
- For some use cases, it might be more enjoyable to use avatars for body movements or to see the same objects.
- As it expands towards richer experiences, virtual spaces like “company offices,” “meeting rooms,” “cafes” where time and space are partially shared will emerge.
Summary by chatgpt:
Regarding the Traditional Scenario: The traditional scenario envisioned a transition where physical spaces like offices and cafes would be replaced by virtual spaces like VRChat or Cluster. However, this text points out that such a direct transition is not realistic, and there may not even be a necessity to entirely shift to virtual spaces.
Proposed New Scenario: The new scenario suggests that with the introduction of devices like “Vision Pro 2-3” around 2025-2027, it will be possible to communicate with others while working on a PC. Unlike the traditional concept of a metaverse, this scenario involves sharing a bit of time and space rather than a completely shared virtual space. It envisions situations similar to working on Discord while having a call, serving as a starting point for richer virtual experiences.
Evolving Use Cases: Starting from this minimal sharing of time and space, the scenario proposes a gradual evolution towards richer experiences based on user needs. This could include sharing body movements using avatars or situations where seeing the same objects is beneficial. Through this evolution, it is suggested that eventually, virtual spaces like offices, meeting rooms, and cafes will be realized in a partially shared time and space format.
This scenario aims to naturally blend the boundaries between reality and virtuality, offering a vision for the future use of VR technology.